Biodiversity and tourism benefits of a conservation scenario for Kenya’s CCDR

Anchor contributed to Kenya’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), by assessing the potential changes in habitat quality and biodiversity under a Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario and an Aspirational Scenario, and the difference that this would make for cultural values (particularly tourism) in Kenya. This involved assessing potential changes in ecosystem health - the degree of ‘intactness’ of natural habitats and the wildlife communities that they support, as a proxy for the status of biodiversity. We combined a range of available spatial data relating to pressures on natural ecosystems to compile and map an index of habitat quality across Kenya and  then projected land cover and habitat quality based on past trends. We estimated the potential impacts on tourism based on current patterns of value and assumed sensitivity of tourism to changing habitat quality under the BAU Scenario compared to the Aspirational Scenario in which habitat quality was improved through restoration and increased protection.